Terminating the NAFTA would impose short-run economic losses on North Carolina, both in terms of aggregate production and aggregate employment. However, the losses would be relatively minor, with total annual GDP falling only 0.1% and 5556 jobs being permanently eliminated. There would be a mix of economic sectors gaining and losing from the dismantling of NAFTA.
Short-run changes would create almost immediate impacts, but they don’t account for the possibility of companies moving production facilities among the NAFTA as well as other
countries. The change in such capital investments takes considerable time and would be the subject of a complementary long-run analysis.