As North Carolina\u2019s economy wraps up a strong year, NC State University economist Mike Walden points out two factors that could have a major impact in 2019: interest rates and the nation\u2019s trade war with China.<\/p>\n
![\"Mike](\"https:\/\/cals.ncsu.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2018\/05\/Walden-headshot-300x300.jpg\")
\u201cNorth Carolina did very well in 2018. We added, for example, about 100,000 net new jobs. That’s one of the highest job-growth rates we’ve ever had,\u201d Walden said. \u201cWe also actually saw some positive movement in terms of what I call the two big divides: the occupational divide and the urban-rural divide.\u201d<\/p>\n
By the \u201coccupational divide,\u201d Walden referred to the fact that during most of the 21st\u00a0century, job growth in North Carolina has been concentrated in higher-paying jobs and lower-paying jobs, with little growth at all in middle-paying jobs. However, that trend began to change in 2017 and continued in 2018, with much stronger growth in middle-paying jobs.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere\u2019s also been a turnaround in the urban-rural divide \u2013 the fact that most of North Carolina\u2019s recent economic and job growth has been concentrated in the state\u2019s large metropolitan regions,\u201d said Walden, a William Neal Reynolds Professor and NC State Extension economist in the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics. \u201c<\/strong>In 2018, rural areas actually saw the fastest job growth rate of any of the other geographical zones.\u201d<\/p>\n Walden expects 2019 to be another good year for North Carolina\u2019s economy but cautions that growth could slow if interest rates continue to rise and the trade war with China isn\u2019t settled.<\/p>\n [pullquote align=’right’ color=’red’]If our economy continues to grow through June, this will be the longest period of sustained growth in our nation’s history.[\/pullquote]<\/p>\n \u201cRaising interest rates tends to slow growth, and this trade war with China is having a big impact on North Carolina farmers,\u201d he said. \u201cAlso, some economists say, \u2018Hey, it’s just time for a pullback in the economy.\u2019 We’ve actually been growing for almost 10 years, and if our economy continues to grow through June, this will be the longest period of sustained growth in our nation’s history.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cSo I think that 2019 won\u2019t be a bad year,\u201d Walden concluded. \u201cA lot’s going to depend on interest rates and the trade war. If we can get the trade war with China settled, that’ll be a boost to the economy. If the Federal Reserve, for example, feels that we’ve raised interest rates enough and inflation’s not a problem, that will also be a boost to the economy.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false,"raw":"As North Carolina\u2019s economy wraps up a strong year, NC State University economist Mike Walden points out two factors that could have a major impact in 2019: interest rates and the nation\u2019s trade war with China.\r\n\r\n How is North Carolina\u2019s economy shaping up for 2019? NC State University economist Mike Walden predicts that while growth may slow, it won\u2019t be bad overall.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":168662,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"source":"","ncst_custom_author":"","ncst_show_custom_author":false,"ncst_dynamicHeaderBlockName":"","ncst_dynamicHeaderData":"","ncst_content_audit_freq":"","ncst_content_audit_date":"","footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[1171,1181],"tags":[2075,321,141],"_ncst_magazine_issue":[],"coauthors":[1651],"displayCategory":null,"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cals.ncsu.edu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/168660"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cals.ncsu.edu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cals.ncsu.edu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cals.ncsu.edu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/22"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cals.ncsu.edu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=168660"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/cals.ncsu.edu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/168660\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":168665,"href":"https:\/\/cals.ncsu.edu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/168660\/revisions\/168665"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cals.ncsu.edu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/168662"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cals.ncsu.edu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=168660"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cals.ncsu.edu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=168660"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cals.ncsu.edu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=168660"},{"taxonomy":"_ncst_magazine_issue","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cals.ncsu.edu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/_ncst_magazine_issue?post=168660"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cals.ncsu.edu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=168660"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}\u201cNorth Carolina did very well in 2018. We added, for example, about 100,000 net new jobs. That's one of the highest job-growth rates we've ever had,\u201d Walden said. \u201cWe also actually saw some positive movement in terms of what I call the two big divides: the occupational divide and the urban-rural divide.\u201d\r\n\r\nBy the \u201coccupational divide,\u201d Walden referred to the fact that during most of the 21st\u00a0century, job growth in North Carolina has been concentrated in higher-paying jobs and lower-paying jobs, with little growth at all in middle-paying jobs. However, that trend began to change in 2017 and continued in 2018, with much stronger growth in middle-paying jobs.\r\n\r\n\u201cThere\u2019s also been a turnaround in the urban-rural divide \u2013 the fact that most of North Carolina\u2019s recent economic and job growth has been concentrated in the state\u2019s large metropolitan regions,\u201d said Walden, a William Neal Reynolds Professor and NC State Extension economist in the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics. \u201c<\/strong>In 2018, rural areas actually saw the fastest job growth rate of any of the other geographical zones.\u201d\r\n\r\nWalden expects 2019 to be another good year for North Carolina\u2019s economy but cautions that growth could slow if interest rates continue to rise and the trade war with China isn\u2019t settled.\r\n\r\n[pullquote align='right' color='red']If our economy continues to grow through June, this will be the longest period of sustained growth in our nation's history.[\/pullquote]\r\n\r\n\u201cRaising interest rates tends to slow growth, and this trade war with China is having a big impact on North Carolina farmers,\u201d he said. \u201cAlso, some economists say, \u2018Hey, it's just time for a pullback in the economy.\u2019 We've actually been growing for almost 10 years, and if our economy continues to grow through June, this will be the longest period of sustained growth in our nation's history.\u201d\r\n\r\n\u201cSo I think that 2019 won\u2019t be a bad year,\u201d Walden concluded. \u201cA lot's going to depend on interest rates and the trade war. If we can get the trade war with China settled, that'll be a boost to the economy. If the Federal Reserve, for example, feels that we've raised interest rates enough and inflation's not a problem, that will also be a boost to the economy.\u201d"},"excerpt":{"rendered":"